Looking Back to Look Forward
As we make our way through the final weeks of 2024, it’s only natural to speculate about what to expect from the coming year, and to reflect on the one that will soon be part of our past. How would our decisions have changed in November of 2019 had we known we were on the verge of a pandemic; one that would have long-ranging effects on the labor market, supply chain, and demand in our industry? If someone had told us last November that our season would start a month early and not stop, would we have done anything differently? But of course, for better or worse, we can’t prophesize the future. Instead, we look to each other to gain insight into what may lie ahead. We ask our competitors, our customers, and our vendors how their season went and how they feel about the coming year. We turn to the experts in our industry to help guide our decisions. And we do the best we can with the information we have.
When it comes to telling the story of our season, we typically let our sales lead the narrative. Here at Mariani Plants, we had the strongest spring on record, catapulted into April by the momentum of abnormally warm temperatures and high demand. Our first lull came in June, followed by a series of ups and downs throughout the remainder of the season. We’re a reactive industry out of necessity, and every time we have a slow week we have to ask why. Sometimes this comes at the risk of blowing things out of proportion. Is it the weather? Or the cicadas? Or uncertainty about the election? It’s probably the start of a recession. Maybe parents are just waiting for the kids to go back to school. Actually, labor is probably the issue. Or it could be that the weather is delaying jobs. It goes on and on. But the truth is that demand is influenced by a wide range of factors, some simple, and some complex. Sometimes we can get to the bottom of what’s driving the change right away, while in other cases it takes time to get a clear picture that tells the whole story. On top of that, our sales rarely chart a smooth path throughout the season. This is true even in the best years, and we’ll never be able to predict how unknown circumstances may affect us a year, a month, or even a week from now.
This isn’t to say we can’t anticipate the way that consumer trends or the economy will impact demand. And who knows how all the recent advancements in AI and predictive analytics could soon affect our ability to make informed decisions about the future? But we already have an incredible amount of data at our disposal, thanks to market research and industry surveys. I personally look forward to reading the annual State of the Industry reports each fall. The titles themselves are quite telling; whether it was Nursery Management’s article titled “Hold the line!”, covering Charlie Hall’s State of the Industry assessment, or their 2024 State of the Industry report: “Walking the tightrope”, it’s clear that there has been a consistent theme underlying our industry for the past few seasons.
In short, growers continue to take a conservative approach when it comes to growth, while applying a razor sharp focus on minimizing shrink and costs as much as possible. The most recent State of the Industry report found that the top three concerns of respondents are labor, increased expenses, and the economy. Interestingly, many businesses are reluctant to raise prices, but, as Charlie Hall says, this is an unsustainable strategy as input costs continue to rise each year.
In the end, we know that the future is uncertain, and it always will be. We can’t be afraid to take risks sometimes, or we would never realize our true potential. But we also have access to something that AI doesn’t have (for now): a gut feeling. Sure, it may be unscientific, but our industry wouldn’t be as strong as it is today if not for our ability to know when to hold back and when to be aggressive. And, at this moment in time, I think many of us have decided to err on the side of caution.
Our industry also benefits from the strong relationships we have with one another. So, as we head into this Thanksgiving weekend, we want to thank you all for your continued partnership. The future may be uncertain, but we look forward to facing it head on, together, as we always do.
